Glad Thanksgiving, everybody.
Earlier than we get into my props, there have been two Thanksgiving specials that stood out to me on DraftKings that I wish to cowl.
Josh Allen is +240 to report essentially the most passing yards on Thanksgiving, and Gabe Davis is +1300 to guide the slate in receiving yards.
I undertaking Davis nearer to +900 to high the receiving charts on Turkey Day. He has a wider vary of outcomes than most gamers, so you might argue that he needs to be decrease.
Davis would not want the amount of different receivers to win this guess given his big-play capability. There is a situation the place he leads the slate with one thing like 125 receiving yards coming into the final sport of the evening. If that is the case, you’ll be able to hedge your guess by betting Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards over. If Jefferson goes underneath his 88.5 complete from him, it is unlikely anybody else goes over 125. If he goes between 89 and 124 receiving yards, you’d win each bets.
The guess on Allen goes hand in hand with Davis. I might say a good value on Allen is nearer to +200.
With that out of the best way, listed here are my favourite props for all three Thanksgiving video games.
Singletary is coming off a season-high 18 dashing makes an attempt final week towards the Browns. It was simply the third time he is cleared this complete in 10 video games.
Towards Cleveland, Singletary benefited from Josh Allen registering season lows in passing (197) and dashing (seven) yards. I feel we’ll see him bounce again with a sufficiently big sport via the air and on the bottom that he eats into Singletary’s workload.
Additionally, we noticed second-round rookie James Prepare dinner report his greatest sport of the season, with 11 carries for 86 dashing yards. Singletary dominates passing-down and 2-minute work, however the Payments may proceed to make use of Prepare dinner on early downs to maintain the veteran contemporary.
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One other factor working towards Singletary on this market is he would not get many makes an attempt on third or fourth and brief. The Payments have a foolproof quarterback sneak the place they line up Gabe Davis behind Allen, driving the QB ahead.
There are additionally some sneaky guardrails on this prop. If the Lions are capable of maintain it shut, that’ll power the Payments right into a pass-heavy sport script.
If the Payments get an enormous lead, they have a tendency to bubblewrap Singletary and let Prepare dinner dominate the work. Buffalo additionally may wish to lastly get Nyheim Hines some reps on offense. Any dashing makes an attempt he will get will solely assist this prop.
I am projecting Singletary for nearer to 12.5 dashing makes an attempt and would guess this all the way down to -140.
I can not consider a greater strategy to spend Thanksgiving than sweating a Lawrence Cager prop throughout meal time (on the East Coast).
I feel this prop presents sneaky worth as a result of the Giants will probably be pressured right into a pass-heavy sport script as 10-point underdogs.
Daniel Jones simply misplaced his high goal, Wan’Dale Robinson, for the remainder of the season. That makes Darius Slayton the brand new go-to receiver, though it is unknown who will emerge because the No. 2 possibility.
Cager will proceed to be the Giants’ lead pass-catching tight finish till rookie Daniel Bellinger returns. Cager has run a route on 70% of Jones’ dropbacks final week, and I count on to see related utilization with Robinson out.
The Cowboys have generated essentially the most stress within the NFL this season. Jones has focused his tight finish 14% of the time in a clear pocket, however that goes as much as 19% when he is dealing with stress.
Cager is a former huge receiver who transformed to tight finish. He is 6-foot-5 and 220 kilos. He is not in there to dam. Additionally, for what it is value, he had the second-most receiving yards amongst tight ends within the preseason.
I am projecting Cager for nearer to 19.5 receiving yards right here and just like the upside on his over.
Cousins has struggled when dealing with stress this season. His yards per try drops from 7.1 with a clear pocket to five.4 when underneath stress. With that, it was no shock Cousins actually struggled towards the Cowboys since Dallas leads the league in stress price.
Cousins faces one other powerful check towards a Patriots protection that ranks second in stress price. To make issues worse, stud left deal with Christian Darrisaw has already been dominated out.
Consequently, I am anticipating Minnesota to have a extra conservative, run-heavy sport plan towards New England.
The Patriots offense may additionally wrestle to place up factors, which helps decrease the probabilities of Cousins getting right into a sport script that sees the Vikings go move heavy and enjoying from behind.
I am projecting this nearer to 238.5 passing yards.