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Fuels. The liter at 20 DH? A likely scenario

Pump price changes from June 1 are mixed. The price of gasoline must increase, when that of diesel is supposed to fall, assures us a connoisseur of the market.

“Diesel prices have fallen by $50 over the past fortnight, which should translate this fortnight into a drop in pump prices of 40 to 60 cents per litre, depending on the strategy of each operator”, told us. explained a source on the evening of May 31.

And to add: “The course of gasoline, on the other hand, has been blazing more and more for the past fortnight. Internationally, the increase exceeded 110 dollars. As long as there is a weighted average stock, the average price increase at the pump will be between 70 and 80 cents. It can reach up to one dirham depending, once again, on the operators. »

Different impacts at the pump

This Wednesday, June 1, the prices displayed at the pump are not all in line with expectations. By comparing the rates charged today with those of May 17, all have increased the price of gasoline. Only two operators have lowered diesel prices, namely Afriquia and Shell. A change in these rates may take place in the coming days.

The comparison of the price statement of this Wednesday, June 1st with the prices of May 17 shows the following evolutions:

Essence Diesel
June 1st May 17 Gap June 1st May 17 Gap
Shell 16.23 15.43 +0.8 14.06 14.58 -0.52
Petrom 15.42 14.30 +1.12 14.55 14.27 +0.28
Total 15.43 14.90 +0.53 14.58 14.30 +0.28
Africa 16.14 14.33 +1.81 13.95 14.28 -0.33
Winxo 15.39 14.31 +1.08 14.55 14.27 +0.28

20 DH per liter, an option now probable

Be that as it may, the expert polled by Médias24 is formal: “The decline will be short-lived. »

“With the announcement, on the one hand, of the generalization of the embargo of the European Union on energy products and, on the other hand, that of Russia, which has declared that the war will last even longer, the market takes an incredible scale in terms of price. This is unheard of, ”comments our source. She says that the rises in refined prices are likely to follow one another.

“During the first half of May, the average platts ended at 1,150 dollars. The second half saw a drop from $50 to $1,100. This is the one that must be passed on to the national market on June 1. After the recent announcements, on the first day of resumption of trading of the platts (May 31), it showed 1,200 dollars. He therefore took 100 dollars in one day”, decrypts our expert.

Trading for the second half of May closed on 27 May. It resumed on May 30, after two public holidays, and will last until June 10.

“If this trend continues until the end of the fortnight, that is to say daily increases of 20 to 50 dollars, the forecasts advancing a liter of diesel at 20 DH become very likely. The risk is enormous”assures our source.

“However, it must be recognized that it is not only Russia’s fault because the latter does not supply everyone. In reality, what is happening is an international will. Nothing prevents other producers from increasing production. If a single producing country, such as Saudi Arabia or Venezuela, increased its production, the problem would be solved,” continues our expert.

Secure purchases at any price

In addition to the rise in international prices, operators must deal with two other increases. On the one hand, that of the dollar/dirham parity which increases the cost. On the other hand, the traders’ commission which increases considerably.

“The futures contracts entered into by Moroccan operators will begin to expire during this month of June. The renewal of contracts will therefore be impacted by the high cost of the molecule as well as by the premiums demanded by traders, which will be even higher,” says our interlocutor.

“We bought the spot with a premium of 1 to 2 dollars, up to a maximum of 5 dollars. Today, this same premium varies between 30 and 50 dollars,” he adds.

“The most important thing for us today is to secure the molecule while dealing with prices. As long as there is no reversal or change in international policy, things are likely to get worse,” concludes our expert.

Fuel prices displayed this Wednesday, June 1 in service stations, road from El Jadida to Casablanca. Photo Media24

Fuel prices displayed on May 17, 2022 in service stations, road from El Jadida to Casablanca. Photo Media24

Fuels: the upward trend will continue, will the State intervene?

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